According to Edward Dowd, the changing second derivative of AI capex spend mirrors historical patterns seen before the dotcom bubble burst in 2001, where a pause in telecom capital expenditure led to a downturn in telecom equipment stocks. This historical context suggests a potential impact on NVIDIA's stock, which is heavily tied to AI infrastructure. Dowd's analysis points to possible caution for traders considering NVIDIA, as similar patterns in expenditure shifts previously led to significant market corrections.